Sensitivity Analysis of an Age-Structured Model of HIV/AIDS Transmission Dynamics in Nigeria through Mathematical Modelling
Chika Agha
Department of Industrial Mathematics and Appplied Statistics, Ebonyi State University, Nigeria.
Henry. O. Adagba
Department of Industrial Mathematics and Appplied Statistics, Ebonyi State University, Nigeria.
Sunday Nwokpoku Aloke *
Department of Industrial Mathematics and Health Statistics, David Umuhi Federal University of Health Sciences, Uburu, Nigeria.
Theresa E. Efor
Department of Industrial Mathematics and Appplied Statistics, Ebonyi State University, Nigeria.
Okorie Nwite
Department of Industrial Mathematics and Appplied Statistics, Ebonyi State University, Nigeria.
Aloysius Nome Ezaka
Department of Industrial Mathematics and Appplied Statistics, Ebonyi State University, Nigeria.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
This study focuses on the estimation of parameters and sensitivity analysis of an age-structured model of HIV/AIDS transmission dynamics in Nigeria. The two age groups considered are people between 15 to 60 years old (mature susceptibles) and those less than 15 years old (immature susceptibles). Python software was used in the analysis. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the disease transmission rate (β) is the most influential parameter, positively affecting the basic reproduction number, while natural and AIDS-related death rates exert the strongest negative influences. Numerical simulations show a significant decline in susceptible populations, indicating high infection risk. The population of unaware infectives remains higher than that of aware infectives, highlighting a critical hidden reservoir for ongoing transmission. These findings underscore the importance of reducing transmission rates and increasing case detection through awareness campaigns. Hence, urgent intervention such as prevention and control measures are critically needed to mitigate the spread of the infection.
Keywords: HIV/AIDS, Age-structured model, sensitivity analysis