Application of Markov Model to the Study of Asthma in Nigeria (A Case Study of Federal Medical Centre Jalingo Taraba State)
Okorie, Charity Ebelechukwu *
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University, Wukari, Taraba State, Nigeria.
Saleh, Ramatu
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University, Wukari, Taraba State, Nigeria.
Otti, Emeka Emmanuel
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University, Wukari, Taraba State, Nigeria.
Nwaokolo, Martin Afam
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University, Wukari, Taraba State, Nigeria.
Iroka. Jude
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University, Wukari, Taraba State, Nigeria.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Asthma is a disorder of the respiratory system in which the passages that enable air to pass in and out of the lungs periodically becomes narrow, causing coughing, wheezing, and shortness of breath. This disorder makes the victim uncomfortable and sometimes exposed such a person to untimely death. Because of this reason, we want to determine the future occurrence of Asthma and also find out the age that is mostly affected with Asthma. Sample data were collected at Federal Medical Centre Jalingo. Markov chain model was used to solve the problem and maple 13 package was used to plot the graph of the sample data and that of the predicted transition probability which shows that as the year increases, there is an increase in the predicted transition probability which clearly shows that asthmatic patient increases along the years. It was also observed that there is likely more Asthmatic case at state 1 followed by state 3 and finally state 2.
Keywords: Cutaneous tuberculosis, Asthma, Serum proteins in tuberculosis, transition Markov chain, probability, patient, occurrence, predicted
How to Cite
Downloads
References
GINA. From the Global Strategy for Asthma Management and Prevention; 2015.
Available:http://www.ginasthma.org/
Accessed 21 Mar 2016.
Mamun MM, Salauddin ASA, Hossain MF, Afrin M, Asaduzzaman M, Kabir ME, Mahmud S. Prevalence of asthma and its associated factors among the undergraduate students of Bangladesh Agricultural University. International Journal of Natural and Social Sciences. 2016;3(1):32-36.
Asthma Fact sheet №307. WHO. Archived from the original on June 29, 2011. 2013;368(9537):804–13.
Retrieved 3 March 2016.
British Guideline. Allergy Immunol. 2009;25(1):71–9,4.
Lemanske RF, Busse WW. Asthma: Clinical expression and molecular mechanisms. J. Allergy Clin. Immunol. 2010;125(2 Suppl 2):S95-102.
DOI:10.1016/j.jaci.2009.10.047
PMC 2853245. PMID 20176271.
Custovic A, et al. The Study Team for Early Life Asthma Research (STELAR) consortium Asthma e-lab: Team science bringing data, methods and investigators together. Thorax. 2015;70(8):799–801.
Pruteanu AI, Chauhan BF, Zhang L, Prietsch SO, Ducharme FM. Inhaled corticosteroids in children with persistent asthma: dose-response effects on growth. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2014;7:CD009878.
doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD009878.pub2
Fuhlbrigge AL, Kelly H. Inhaled corticosteroids in children: Effects on bone mineraldensity and growth. Lancet Respir Med. 2014;2(6):487-496.
DOI: 10.1016/S2213 2600(14)70024-4
Cates CJ, Karner C. Combination formoterol and budesonide as maintenance and reliever therapy versus current best practice (including inhaled steroid maintenance), for chronic asthma in adults and children. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2013;4:CD007313.
DOI: 10.1002/14651858. CD007313.pub3
Global Health and Aging. National Institute on Aging. National Institutes of Health, World Health Organization; 2011.
Accessed on 20 October 2013.
Available:http://www.who.int/ageing/publications/global_health.pdf
Patel M, Pilcher J, Pritchard A, et al. SMART Study Group. Efficacy and safety of maintenance and reliever combination budesonide-formoterol inhaler in patients with asthma at risk of severe exacerbations: A randomised controlled trial. Lancet Respir Med. 2013;1(1):32-42.